Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-18 1.262000 1.336873 1.414856 1.502330 1.597941 1.699524 1.815946
2026-01-25 1.163456 1.271242 1.388772 1.527199 1.686764 1.866127 2.084703
2026-02-01 1.070166 1.192698 1.330330 1.497777 1.697921 1.931983 2.230214
2026-02-08 0.991861 1.121896 1.271257 1.457548 1.686619 1.963111 2.328489
2026-02-15 0.941583 1.078874 1.239700 1.444791 1.703546 2.025118 2.464947
2026-02-22 0.906274 1.050600 1.222716 1.446733 1.736238 2.106141 2.629243
2026-03-01 0.863986 1.010999 1.188863 1.424256 1.734561 2.140376 2.730874
2026-03-08 0.818749 0.965310 1.144706 1.385378 1.707881 2.137923 2.779004
2026-03-15 0.790228 0.939061 1.123482 1.374491 1.716790 2.182941 2.896594
2026-03-22 0.778067 0.932737 1.127026 1.395790 1.769683 2.291363 3.115345
2026-03-29 0.758037 0.915273 1.115021 1.395089 1.791289 2.355630 3.271416
2026-04-05 0.745338 0.906661 1.114016 1.408893 1.833515 2.451893 3.485397
2026-04-12 0.726521 0.889986 1.102432 1.408654 1.857217 2.524729 3.673474
2026-04-19 0.717124 0.885460 1.107002 1.431306 1.915845 2.655401 3.973412
2026-04-26 0.691009 0.857439 1.078203 1.404534 1.898278 2.664291 4.061090
2026-05-03 0.663153 0.826146 1.043724 1.367892 1.863422 2.642593 4.090723
2026-05-10 0.645392 0.808043 1.026905 1.356263 1.866364 2.682425 4.237284
2026-05-17 0.633091 0.796993 1.019485 1.358034 1.890089 2.758019 4.459456
2026-05-24 0.614387 0.776480 0.997907 1.337535 1.876983 2.769633 4.556978
2026-05-31 0.591938 0.750150 0.967226 1.302048 1.837850 2.733491 4.554230
2026-06-07 0.578448 0.736021 0.953637 1.292103 1.839836 2.769536 4.703802
2026-06-14 0.574464 0.735131 0.959080 1.311556 1.891207 2.897153 5.062772
2026-06-21 0.564789 0.725847 0.951907 1.310916 1.908597 2.963740 5.297010